Войната в Сирия - том 2 - 2017
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| When did protest against the Assad government turn to war in Syria? Instead of serious political advice, the West, especially the US and their proxy Arab allies in the Gulf, then poured weapons into Syria – enough arms to destroy Syria but not enough to overthrow the regime, as one ex-rebel told me When Nikolaos van Dam was a young diplomat in Damascus, he knew Syria better than many Syrians. A fluent speaker of Arabic, this Dutch scholar’s first book on Syria’s modern history was so well researched that even members of the Baath party would reportedly turn to its pages to understand the history of their institution and the nature of the regime for which they worked. Precise, polite, his analysis as cool and lethal as a sword, Van Dam also possesses a cynical – perhaps sarcastic – attitude towards the diplomatic elite that other officials might secretly admire. “It is better to do nothing than to do the wrong thing with terrible results,” he told me a few days ago. “But Western democracies feel they have to do something … If there had not been any Western influence, there would have been a tenth of the violence, the country would not be in rubble, so many would not have died, you would not have had so many refugees.” It’s not that Van Dam blames the Syrian West for the war, but he holds it to account for the influence and interference it exercised so promiscuously. And his new book, Destroying a Nation: The Civil War in Syria, is perhaps the only one so far published about the conflict that attempts to set out coldly what the opposition as well as the Assad government did wrong. Van Dam has never avoided talking about the torture and suppression that the regime has used to maintain power. He stated in the very early weeks of the 2011 demonstrations – in The Independent – that Syria’s crisis might well end in a bloodbath. He acknowledges the cruelty and stupidity with which the Syrian security apparatus turned to guns and humiliation and torture to suppress a largely peaceful mass protest movement inspired (or seduced) by the Arab revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. But he also notes how early the “peaceful” opposition turned to violence once the crisis began. On the Syrian border with north-eastern Lebanon, inside Lebanese territory but in sight of the plain of Homs in the spring of 2011, I listened to a fierce gun battle being fought only a few hundred metres across the frontier – at a time when only the Syrian army and the security police were supposed to be using weapons against unarmed demonstrators. A week later, an Al Jazeera camera crew – working for the Qatar-funded channel whose ruling family would soon fund the Nusra-al Qaeda fighters in Syria, as even its royal family acknowledged – asked to meet me in Beirut. They showed me footage also taken near the north-eastern border of Lebanon. Their tape clearly showed armed men shooting at Syrian troops. Al Jazeera, adhering to the “soldiers-shoot-down-unarmed-demonstrators” story, had refused to air their film. They had resigned. Later, Syrian state television itself showed – all too real – film of armed men among the crowds of protestors in Dera’a. Van Dam dismisses reports that these men were government “provocateurs”. He does not dispute the Assad government’s killing of the innocent – though he suggests this came about through the inherent and untamed brutality of the regime’s security apparatus rather than a policy decision by Bashar al-Assad himself. Faisal Mekdad, the deputy foreign minister whom Assad sent to Dera’a (the minister’s home town), after the torture of children and killing of demonstrators, admitted to me that “bad mistakes” had been made there. But such “discoveries” were useless. Within months, the public’s demand for “reforms” had turned into an uprising determined to overthrow a regime that then resorted to all out-war against its enemies. Early reports of a massacre of Syrian troops by armed men at Jisr al-Chagour, dismissed by government opponents as the killing of army deserters by the regime, were, Van Dam concludes, true. The soldiers were murdered by those whom we would soon call “rebels”. Exactly when – and, more important, why – peaceful protest turned to armed uprising and then, inevitably, to an Islamist insurgency against the supposedly “secular” rule of the regime is one of the most important historical questions about Syria’s war. And it remains largely unanswered. There are clues enough. Van Dam is scalpel-sharp in his condemnation of Western policies, which breathed fire into the bosom of the opposition – the American and French diplomats who travelled to Homs to join the demonstrators immediately lost their neutrality, he says – and then left them to the mercy of their enemies. Van Dam praises the work of my colleague Patrick Cockburn, who has often pointed out how those two ambassadors told the protestors not to negotiate with the Assad regime on the basis that it would soon collapse. But the West closed its embassies, abandoning its new opposition friends. “Had they remained in Damascus, the ambassadors might have been a kind of last contact through whom attempts might have been made to influence the regime,” Van Dam says. Instead of serious political advice, the West, especially the US and their proxy Arab allies in the Gulf, then poured weapons into Syria – enough arms to destroy Syria but not enough to overthrow the regime, as one ex-rebel told me – and tried to direct the armed groups from Turkey and Jordan. And all the while, they and the UN encouraged talks between the regime and the opposition which had no chance of success – because the rebel groups would only settle for the overthrow of the Assad government and because the Assad regime would never negotiate for its own overthrow. |
| When the rebellion turned largely Islamist, there was no one to explain to us why this had happened. Journalists who had arrived in Aleppo with the rebels, en route for the “liberation” of Damascus along the lines of the “liberation” of Tripoli in Libya, justifiably retreated when the warriors of Isis took to beating, imprisoning and chopping off their heads – but largely without telling us what had happened to the revolution. The “good guys” in our stories, after all, are not supposed to turn into the “bad guys”. Van Dam asks why, in all the later reports on the bombardment by the regime of eastern Aleppo, the world never saw film of the Islamist fighters there, nor their weapons, nor their armed control of the streets. “If you look at the media reports,” he says, “it’s as if the bombs only fell on schools and hospitals.” The people of Aleppo did not invite the armed opposition into their streets, according to Van Dam – he is right – and the fighters then, eventually, failed to win their battle. They lost. The declarations of horror by Western nations helped to obscure this defeat. All along, both the original demonstrators and the fighters and the West “miscalculated the ruthlessness of the regime”. Van Dam hasn’t visited Syria since the war began, and it sometimes shows. He gives too much credit to the slovenly and undisciplined regime gangs for military victories. When an Alawite militia tried to persuade me they were now a disciplined force – their “commander” speaking in his Lattakia office under a vast metal two-edged Shia sword – the demonstration turned to farce when some of his men turned up in brand new Mercedes with smoked windows and no registration plates. And Van Dam believes that the Syrian army, in 2011, was at its lowest operational capacity in years. In fact, the Syrian military, corrupted by a quarter century in Lebanon, became a fighting machine in the war, took on Isis (despite Washington’s claims to the contrary), lost 75,000 of its men but – with Russian military help – turned on its armed enemies and is now pushing the Islamists from much of the country. Van Dam, an expert on the Alawis of Syria, slightly overstretches their influence on the army – where perhaps 80 per cent of the soldiers are Sunni Muslims, the same sect as their enemies – but accurately emphasises the enormous casualty figures among the families in the Alawi mountains. When Assad called his ministers a “war cabinet” – Van Dam takes the evidence for this from a defecting official – and it was clear that there would be no government punishment for its own operatives’ murder or torture, it was clear, he says, that “reforms” were no real part of government policy. He talks of the disastrous pre-war harvest that drove a million rural poor to the cities following the worst drought for 500 years – a unique contribution to the Syrian revolution by global warming – and writes that war crimes should be recorded for future “justice”. But who will ensure such justice is implemented? Without any Western desire for real military intervention (save that of Vladimir Putin), Western “humanitarian corridors” and “safe zones” were a nonsense. Van Dam speaks mournfully of the continuation of the Assad government, which might win “95 per cent in the negotiations” and in which the opposition might gain the right to hold “the ministries of tourism and culture”. It’s not a prediction. But Van Dam’s expertise shows all too painfully how ignorance and stupidity governed the reflexes of Western politicians who preferred moral correctness to the realities of finding a solution: they sent weapons instead. In some ways, Van Dam concludes, the situation was similar to that in 1991 “when the United States and others encouraged the Shia community to rise up against ... Saddam Hussein, but did nothing to help them when their uprising was bloodily suppressed”. And we all know what happened then. Robert Fisk 31.08.2017 http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/syria-civil-war-rebellion-isis-assad-western-intervention-arms-a7921526.html |
| Пълните данни от доклада на междуведомствената комисия за експортен контрол на оръжие, които бяха спестени на читателите в статията по темата за експорта на българското оръжие от 31.08.2017. Болгария увеличила поставки оружия для боевиков Сирии почти в 3 раза 1 сентября 2017 13:04 Подробнее: https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2017/09/01/bolgariya-uvelichila-postavki-oruzhiya-dlya-boevikov-sirii-pochti-v-3-raza |
| Както вървят нещата, до ден-два най-големият град на Ефрат - Дейр Ез-Зор - ще бъде деблокиран. Офанзивата на САА, подкрепяна от руската авиация, върви с шеметни темпове. Ето днешния напредък ок. 25 км (картата трябва да се увеличи). https://militarymaps.info/index.php?lat=34.9132659817185&lng=38.63399147186282&z=8&t=3&a=Syria | |
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Симетричният отговор на руснаците срещу дипломатическите напъни на янките идва в Сирия. Нека бъде свобода за Дейр-ез-Зор!  |
| През последните дни кюрдите са разстреляли към 400 пленени бойци на ИД, допускам ония които през последните дни се прададоха сами. Снимки с камарите с трупове няма да пускам. Разбира се за това си военно престъпление няма да понсат никакви последствия, след като зад гърба им стоят САЩ.Освен това има и сериозни съмнения, че една част от избитите са свързани изобщо с ИД. Материал с подробности на colonelcassad по темата. https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3653256.html | |
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| https://twitter.com/wesservic/status/904429422702469120 Дейр-ез-Зор е деблокиран! | |
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   Advancing troops from Al Khurayyta side are 18 KM AWAY and Sukhnah Side 8 KM away | |
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| ВОЙНА В СИРИИ, 18:31 05.09.2017 Путин поздравил Минобороны со «стратегической победой» в Сирии Министр обороны Сергей Шойгу доложил Владимиру Путину о прорыве блокады Дейр-эз-Зора в Сирии. Президент поздравил как российских военных в Сирии, так и Башара Асада, сообщили в Кремле Натисни тук |
| 5 сентября 2017 17:00 Завершилась самая долгая блокада современности: в Дейр-эз-Зоре начались уличные бои Сирийские правительственные войска прорвали оборону боевиков группировки "Исламское государство" и деблокировали Дейр-эз-Зоре. Террористы осаждали город на востоке Сирии около трех лет, таким образом, самая длительная блокада в современной истории завершилась, заявили в Министерстве обороны России. С воздуха операцию поддерживали самолеты ВКС России, кроме того с фрегата "Адмирал Эссен" по основным позициям боевиков на подступах к городу был нанесен удар крылатыми ракетами "Калибр". В это же время сирийская армия под командованием генерала Хасана Сухела перешла в стремительное наступление.Боевики пытались остановить прорыв, используя смертников на автомобилях. Сирийские военные уничтожили более 50 "джихадмобилей" террористов. Сейчас армейские подразделения ведут уличные бои и освобождают кварталы, занятые террористами, передает телеканал "Россия 24". Натисни тук |
| Американцы вывезли из района Дейр-эз-Зора главарей ИГ*, сообщил источник https://ria.ru/syria/20170907/1502010574.html 16:44 07.09.2017 (обновлено: 16:57 07.09.2017) МОСКВА, 7 сен — РИА Новости. В августе ВВС США из района Дейр-эз-Зора эвакуировали на север Сирии свыше двадцати полевых командиров и приближенных им боевиков террористической группировки "Исламское государство"*, рассказал РИА Новости военно-дипломатический источник. Вашингтон планирует использовать опыт вывезенных боевиков "на других направлениях", отметил собеседник агентства. "В частности, 26 августа из района вблизи населенного пункта Трейф, расположенного к северо-западу от города Дейр-эз-Зор, вертолетом ВВС США в ночное время были вывезены два полевых командира ИГИЛ* "европейского происхождения" с членами семей", — рассказал он. Также 28 августа из района Альбу-Лейль к юго-востоку от Дейр-Эз-Зора американские вертолеты вывезли около двадцати полевых командиров и их окружение на север Сирии. "Необходимо отметить, что лишившиеся благодаря американцам своих командиров, боевики в большинстве случаев прекращают организованные действия, и бросают свои позиции, примыкая к другим отрядам или спасаясь бегством поодиночке. Все это, в конечном счете, еще больше способствует успеху наступательной операции сирийских правительственных войск на востоке Сирии", — отметил источник. По его словам, "с приближением разгрома сирийскими правительственными войсками ИГИЛ в районе Дейр-Эз-Зора поступают новые свидетельства глубокой вовлеченности спецслужб так называемой "международной коалиции", и особенно США, в обеспечение и поддержку действий отрядов боевиков, действующих под командованием ИГИЛ в Сирии". "Захваченные в плен боевики на допросах рассказывают о многочисленных фактах поддержки спецслужбами США полевых командиров террористических группировок со времен прежней американской администрации по настоящее время", — сказал он. По словам собеседника агентства, августовская эвакуация была не первой. "В мае этого года американскими вертолетами подобным образом были эвакуированы полевые командиры и иностранные наемники европейского происхождения из населенного пункта Кясра провинции Дейр-Эз-Зор. А в июне-июле аналогичные эвакуации боевиков были зафиксированы в провинции Ракка.", — рассказал он. |
| Туткалчев, Мноо интересно фото. Аз преди дни казах, че за мен сега най-интересното ще е да се види дали важи "тайната договорка" между САЩ и Русия за Ефрат. Това фото е доста доста показателно......  |
| The West might hardly believe it, but it now seems the Syrian war is ending – and Assad is the victor While we’re all waiting for Trump to start World War Three, we’ve not spotted that the military map of the Middle East has substantially, bloodily changed. It will be years before Syria and Iraq (and Yemen) are rebuilt – and the Israelis may have to go to Putin to clear up the mess they’re now in A message came through from Syria on my mobile phone last week. “General Khadour kept his promise,” it read. I knew what it meant. Five years ago, I met Mohamed Khadour, who was commanding a few Syrian soldiers in a small suburb of Aleppo, under fire from Islamist fighters in the east of the city. At the time, he showed me his map. He’d recapture these streets in 11 days, he said. And then in July this year, I met Khadour again, far out in the east of the Syrian desert. He was, he said, going to enter the besieged city of Deir ez-Zor before the end of August. I reminded him, a trifle cruelly, that the last time he told me he’d recapture part of Aleppo in 11 days, it took the Syrian army more than four years to retake. That was long ago, he said. In those days, the army had not learned to fight in a guerrilla war. The army were trained to retake Golan and defend Damascus. But they had learned now. Indeed they had. Out in the desert, Khadour said he was going to bomb the town of Sukhna – the Russians would do much of the bombing – and his Syrian troops would break through from there to Deir ez-Zor, which had been surrounded by Isis for three years with its encircled 80,000 civilians and 10,000 soldiers. Khadour said he’d reach Deir ez-Zor by 23 August. He turned out to be almost dead on target. Now he is heading towards the rest of Deir ez-Zor and then towards the Syrian-Iraqi border. So it seems – after the capture of the city is complete and when Khadour is on the frontier, and now that Aleppo is totally in the hands of the regime and only Idlib province remains a dustbin of largely Islamist rebels (including al-Qaeda), many of whom were allowed to travel there in return for surrendering bits of Syrian cities – that what has always been unthinkable in the West is now happening: Bashar al-Assad’s forces look to be winning the war. And not just “look like”. Hassan “Tiger” Saleh, Syria’s favourite army officer – referred to twice by the Russian defence minister – broke his way into the compound of the 137th Syrian army brigade at Deir ez-Zor and relieved the soldiers there, while Khadour, his commanding officer (they are personal friends), is set to liberate the airbase in the city. How many remember the day when the Americans bombed the Syrian soldiers close to that airbase and killed more than 60 of them, allowing Isis to cut it off from the rest of the city? The Syrians have never believed the American claim that they made a “mistake”. It was only the Russians who told the US air force they were bombing Syrian forces. The Brits already seem to have got the message. They slyly withdrew their military trainers last week – the men intended to prepare David Cameron’s mythical “70,000 rebels” who were supposedly going to overthrow the Assad government. Even the UN’s report that the regime killed more than 80 civilians in a gas attack this summer got little play from the European politicians who used to play up war crimes in Syria and supported Donald Trump’s pointless Cruise missile attack on a Syrian airbase. And what of Israel? Here is a nation which truly counted on the end of Assad, going so far as to bomb his forces and those of his Hezbollah and Iranian allies while giving medical help to Islamist fighters from Syria in Israeli cities. No wonder Benjamin Netanyahu was so “agitated” and “emotional” – Russian descriptions – when he met Vladimir Putin in Sochi. Iran was Russia’s “strategic ally” in the region, Putin said. Israel was an “important partner” of Russia. Which was not quite the same – and not what Netanyahu wanted to hear. The repeated victories of the Syrians mean that the Syrian army is among the most “battle-hardened” in the region, its soldiers used to fighting for their lives and now trained in coordinating troops and intelligence from a single command headquarters. As former St Antony’s College associate scholar Sharmine Narwani put it this week, this alliance now has political cover from two permanent UN Security Council members, Russia and China. So what will Israel do? Netanyahu has been so obsessed with Iran’s nuclear programme that he clearly never imagined – in company with Obama, Hillary Clinton, Trump, Cameron, May, Hollande and other members of the political elites in the West – that Assad might win, and that a more powerful Iraqi army might also emerge from the rubble of Mosul. Netanyahu still supports the Kurds, but neither Syria nor Turkey nor Iran nor Iraq have any interest in supporting Kurdish national aspirations – despite the military use by America of Kurdish militiamen in the so-called Syrian Democratic Forces (it being largely Kurdish rather than “Syrian”, not “democratic” at all and scarcely a “force” without US air power). So while we’re all waiting for Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un to start World War Three, we’ve not spotted that the military map of the Middle East has substantially, bloodily changed. It will be years before Syria and Iraq (and Yemen) are rebuilt, but the Israelis, so used to calling on Washington for help, may have to go back to Putin again to clear up the mess they’re in. Those in the Israeli political right who claimed that Assad was a greater danger than Isis may have to think again – not least because Assad may be the man they’ll have to talk to if they want to keep their northern border safe. Robert Fisk 07.09.2017 http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/syrian-war-ending-bashar-al-assad-won-robert-fisk-syria-middle-east-israel-british-troops-a7933966.html  | |
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| Мислех си да подчертая някои нещица, но в тази статия всяка дума е важна, затова се отказах. Бройте я болдната цялата до последната буква. |
| Много любопитно мнение на руски форумец от раздела за Сирийската война на "Глобальная авантюра": Вот чего думаю. Это примирение в Тель Рифате курдов и зеленых как бы боком не вышло. Если его распространят на весь Африн и турецкий анклав, то угроза Африну перестанет существовать, и о высвободится до 5-7 тыс. ополченцев. Да никуда они не пойдут) На этой ветке уже не раз писалось, что эта антитеррористическая война на БВ показала один парадоксальный факт, что реально тут вообще нет ни одной армии, которая умела бы воевать. Даже евреи. Даже турки и персы. ЦРУ вообще-то придумали гениальную структуру - ИГИЛ. Ведь они все правильно рассчитали, что после запуска этой программы, ее не только в регионе остановить не смогут, но и сами американцы со всей своей коалицией не остановят. В этом и был самый смак. Весь регион лег бы. Европа бы легла. Африка. Кто-то о курдах тогда думал? Кто-то отвел им роль в изначальном плане? Да кто они такие?!. ) Все, что происходит с курдами - это "собрано на коленке". В аврале. Потому что рухнули планы: А, Б, Ц. Ракка - ярчайший пример этому. Какая нафиг нефть? Лицо бы сохранить. Жизнь бы сохранить. Кто-нибудь хоть раз слышал от нашего МО беспокойство по поводу курдов? Или видел, чтобы наши торопили САА то-то и то-то занять? Тремя страницами ранее шикарнейший же мем выкладывали с "долгой дорогой" Сухейла. Даже под американцами, курды - не сторона конфликта. Амеры их даже на переговоры в Женеву и Астану не пускают. Уверен, как покончат с терроризмом в горячей фазе, так наши сразу предложат курдам такую дорожную карту сотрудничества, что те, не сильно торгуясь, подпишут и уйдут на свои родные земли. В качестве примера просто послушайте, что говорят лидеры Японии и Южной Кореи после встреч с нашими руководителями. А ведь они поплотнее и подольше лежат под теми же америкосами, нежели курды.)) Форумец Дэлф, 19.00. https://glav.su/forum/5/2237/messages/?offset=131660 |
| Гръм и мълнии!!! Казват, че Русия е пуснала "Бащата на всички бомби" в Сирия . Става дума за 7-тонна термобарична бомба, по разрушителна мощ надминаваща 11-тонната американска MOАВ (майката на всички бомби). Rumors Fly That Russia Has Dropped "The Father of All Bombs" in Syria A rrumor has appeared on social media suggesting that Russia has dropped its most powerful non-nuclear bomb, nicknamed the Father of All Bombs, on ISIS terrorists in Syria. If confirmed, this would be the first time Russia has employed this weapon, which is has otherwise revealed very little about, in combat. If the reports of the Russian air strike turn out to be true, it is also possible that dropping the FOAB was a message intended for another party. U.S.-supported Syrian rebels belonging to the Syrian Democratic Forces have been suggesting they are on the verge of beginning an offensive into Deir ez-Zor governorate, ostensibly to attack ISIS. However, those operations could potentially put them in a position to eventually launch attacks against the Syrian government and its allies. The massive Russian strike could be seen as a warning to any anti-regime forces interested in moving into the area as ISIS falls back. http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/14175/rumors-fly-that-russia-has-dropped-the-father-of-all-bombs-in-syria |
| Как от бивши садамовски офицери минали през лагери за пленници на САЩ и най-вероятно превербувани от тях, е формирана ИД. Изключително показателна статия. А вас, Хаджи Бакр, я попрошу остаться... http://operline.ru/content/stati/a-vas-khadzhi-bakr-ya-poproshu-ostatsya-.html 13.09.2017 01:24:23 И още за възникването, устройството и как се ръководи ИД. ИГИЛ: управляемое стадо http://operline.ru/content/stati/igil-upravlyaemoe-stado.html 10.02.2016 14:48:18 | |
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