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| В. "Черно море", 26 май 2008 г. Около 300 млрд. евро са приходите международен туризъм за 2006 година в целия Европейски съюз, съобщи Алан Вела – член на Съюза по туризъм в Европейската комисия. Най-голяма част от тях е събрала Испания – около 40 млрд. евро, докато България е в средата на таблицата с малко повече от 2 млрд. евро. По брой туристи лидер в Европа за 2006 година е Франция с 80 млн. чуждестранни посетители. България е била предпочетена от 5, 2 млн. души, докато северната на съседка Румъния е посрещнала едва 1, 5 млн. чуждестранни гости. Общо 460 млн. посетители е имало в целия Европейски съюз за 2006 година. Алан Вела подчерта, че през 2010 година те ще достигнат 1 млрд., а за 2020 година Европейската комисия прогнозира повече 1, 600 млрд. туристи. |
| Лека полека настигаме румънците в контейнерите Морски Дневник, 2 юни Пристанище Варна е задръстено от контейнеровози Варненското пристанище е обработило рекорден брой контейнери до края на месец май, каза изпълнителният директор на порта Данаил Папазов. По думите му на пристанище Варна-запад, откъдето преминава основният контейнерен трафик на страната, ръстът за първите пет месеца е почти 200 на сто спрямо същия период на миналата година. Броят на обработените TEU (единица за 20-футов контейнер, която е приета за стандартна мярка) е 60 хил. Само за сравнение, за цялата 2007 г. във Варна са обработени 104 хил. TEU. Основната причина за увеличения трафик е продължаващата вече трети месец стачка в пристанище Солун. "Протестите доведоха до невиждан за нас феномен - предприемачите от Западна България да използват българските пристанища във Варна и Бургас", коментира управителят на "Глобал Маритайм" Димитър Добрев. Компанията е представител на Hapag Lloyd, която е в списъка на големите пет контейнерни оператори в света. Според Папазов средно на денонощие се обработват между 3 и 4 контейнеровоза, а опашките от камиони излизат извън пределите на Варна-запад... Дори и ако се игнорира ефектът от стачката на гръцките пристанищни работници, ръстът в контейнерния трафик не е изненадващ и България трябва да бъде подготвена за него, казва Димитър Добрев. Най-бързо това може да стане с покупка на техника. Прогнозите на водещи контейнерните оператори сочат, че до 2014 г., когато по план ще бъдат построени двата нови контейнерни терминала във Варна и Бургас, в Черно море ще се превозват между 12-14 млн. TEU. (Б.м. - Констанца обработи около 1, 1 млн TEU в 2006 г., но оттогава има спад поради пренасочването на стоките за Централна Европа към Триест, Котор и Риека. Големия трафик през нас обаче ще тръгне от Русия, която иска да кара китайски контейнери за ЕС по Транссиб. С цените на нефта това става все по-изгодно, а и е по-бързо. През януари подписаха за нова фериботна линия Белослав - Порт Кавказ. Японците потягат Транссиб. ) |
| Интересен пътепис от италиански автор, пътувал лятото на 2004 г. с кола от Будапеща до Пловдив през Румъния: тук Entering Romania from Hungary was like going back 60 years. Houses seemed home-made of mud, their plaster painted with simple symbols like lucky charms. Or longer than 60 years -- hoping to take a short cut, we found ourselves on what looked like an original, unrepaired Roman road made by Trajan. We saw only one other vehicle on it. As the full moon rose ominously over Transylvania, alongside this wretched route were little straw huts and a few people with stalls of watermelons, waiting hopefully (or ominously) in darkness. Seasonal farm workers? They couldn't live here all the year. The winter would kill them. We stayed in a home-made hotel with beds out of Goldilocks. Next day, cotton and maize and sunflowers, stooped old peasant women in black, a man taking a cow for a walk like a pet. Crumbling buildings, industrial stuff rusting, a huge power station, many of its hundreds of windows smashed. Up into the long wild vistas of the Upper Carpathians we went. Storks flew past. At the city of Sibiu suddenly things got a big more modern. In the merry courtyard of McDonald's a trendy dyed blonde with ringlets and designer trousers was a bit different from the aged peasant crones and the gypsies in wide black hats three kilometres earlier. Many Romanians imagine Pepsi-Cola is a communist drink because it was allowed previously. Now we entered the Lower Carpathians, which are higher than the Upper ones, simply further south. Steep forested mountains, valleys of maize. A river picking up force as it rushed downhill alongside the road, periodically dammed for power. Probably here was where Ceausescu flooded five villages, giving villagers two days notice to clear out. Many old folk stayed to drown so as not to lose their familiar life. A hundred years ago this would have been a totally isolated society, certainly cut off all winter long. Lots of Turkish lorries, difficult to pass. Turks ruled here for 300 years, so they aren't popular. Peter's walkie-talkies proved very useful for overtaking on blind bends. "No vehicles for 500 metres. Go now!" Romanian driving is mad. "Romanians are unaware of consequences, and I'm not kidding. They'll run you over. They won't stop. They don't think of jail." Bucharest at long last. Central Bucharest was bulldozed and rebuilt by Ceausescu in megalomaniac majestic style, although relics of village remain in weird counterpoint. He copied the Champs Elysé es to lead to his enormous palace. Tens of thousands of stray dogs doze and roam everywhere, but here is the only private educational TV station in Europe, and you can google anywhere from a mobile phone - the poorest shall be the most advanced in info-tech. The Mayor of Bucharest tried to deal with a million stray dogs by catching and killing them. When Brigitte Bardot protested, the Mayor invited her to visit with advice and funds for canine welfare. A big payment let her adopt 200 dogs to live luxuriously in Bucharest. The culling continued, obviously ineffectively. We visited Ceausescu's palace, honey-white and so enormous that only five per cent is on show to the public, and that's quite enough. Hardly anyone visits the place, which it isn't popular with Romanians, but it employs 300 cleaners. Our guide asks us not to touch the curtains, which weigh tons and are therefore almost impossible to clean. Since Ceausescu was a short chap, he had trouble ascending a grand marble stairway, so he ordered it demolished and rebuilt seven times until he felt he would look dignified enough. From the balcony where Michael Jackson famously greeted the citizenry of Bucharest by crying out, "Hullo Budapest!" we can see all the way along the local Champs Elysé es to the lofty flat of Roberto's friend where Sheckley and Max are staying. Allegedly each of the myriad majestic roadlamps along the boulevard is a millimeter (or whatever) shorter than its predecessor so that the boulevard will look longer. Costa Gavras wanted to hire the Vatican to make a movie, but the Vatican refused, so he hired parts of Ceausescu's palace instead - and he wallpapered into a few huge empty niches reproductions of Caravaggio, Uccello etc to give a Vatican feel. Since the wallpaper seemed preferable to blank space, there they remain, surreally. "Meta-kitsch on top of mega-kitsch," said Roberto. Glacial moraine under Bucharest means that during earthquakes some land moves vertically, some horizontally, and some mixedly, which made the palace even more expensive to erect... 200, 000 Lei (a tiny amount) will make a car park guard like you, and eager to see you again, and your car still in one piece. Asphalt burned and bubbled blackly in the middle of a back street. Some builder must have needed hot tar for a job, so he set fire to it. Obviously the middle of the street was safer than the sides. A woman collecting scrap was steering her horse and cart, her repeated cry like a muezzin's calling worshippers. Dogs yapped everywhere. And so off to Bulgaria... (Русе - б.м.) I'd thought that Bulgaria would also be a poor country, but it seemed much more hip and prosperous than Romania. Последното съм го чувал от много чужденци - от руснаци до англичани. За разлика от Русия, дето общо взето знаят как е, западняците, преди да дойдат по нас, често мислят, че Румъния е същата като Бълагрия или даже по-богата и/или цивилизована заради латиницата и романския език. Редактирано от - Чичо Фичо на 21/1/2009 г/ 01:36:32 |
| Romania Headed Toward National Bankruptcy Anton Caragea June 19, 2009 The implications of the world economic crisis are starting to severely cripple the Romanian economy. In the last six months, negative news has been poring. Stock exchange values have decreased by more than 60 percent, and industrial and agricultural production has seen a sharp decline. The forecast for the rest of the year is even blacker: the escalating financial could devastate the Romanian economy. Budget in crisis At the beginning of the year, the new government of Romania registered a sad record, becoming the first government in the last ten years that was incapable of promoting a budget. For three months, the Romanian administration and economy was confronted with an unprecedented situation: being forced to act with no budget and no resources. At the four-month mark in April, the Emil Boc government succeeded in passing through Parliament its budget that was intended to put an end to the crisis. But when the budget was finally accepted, the government was hit with a terrible realization. One billion dollars of the budget was to be covered by the General Motors (G.M.) investment in Craiova Car Factory, and it became clear that G.M. would not be able to pay its $1 billion debt. To Romania, this amount is no small change. Financial storm gathering The budget quickly became unrealistic. At the end of May, local administration announced that it had already consumed all the money allocated for the year. With low tax revenue caused by the reduction in economic activity, almost sixty of the cities in Romania are bankrupt and requesting state help. On June 1, the National Fund for Retirement Pension announced its bankruptcy. In 2008, the Fund lost 800 million lei (almost 250 million euro) and in 2009 almost 300 million more, putting its numbers well in the red. The Fund will not be able to pay retirement pension to the people in the social welfare system. Other statistics are equally somber. Unemployment has risen to 10 percent (official figure), but the unions are estimating that the number is actually around 15 percent. The budget deficit is increasing sharply despite all governmental efforts to reduce it, and already the European Union Commission has announced the beginning of procedure against the Romanian state for excessive deficit. Real estate values collapsing The real estate market has virtually ceased to exist. Transaction has decreased by 90 percent, and credit for real estate has frozen. (Only ten people have received bank loans for real estate investment in 2009.) Price slides have made fortunes disappear. Prices have dropped from 3, 000 euro per square meter in 2007 to below 300 in May 2009. This collapse has affected financial and investment markets and provoked a huge storm of bankruptcy. In the leasing field, the number of firms has been cut in half, and a new tax system has caused a wave of closing down small enterprises. Bank system failure In January, the general manager of Raiffeissen Bank announced that he will be forced to close operations in Eastern Europe without Romanian support. Central Europe Bank made a similar announcement, and National Bank suspects that ten of its major banks will close within two years. To avoid a collapse of the system, banking institutions will need to see over $10 billion in state support by the end of this year. I.M.F. loans: saving the economy or burying Romania? In mid April, the government claimed it had the solution to the country’s economic crisis: a loan from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund (I.M.F.) of 20 billion euro to reshape the economy and cover pending expenses. But the dream was short lived, and short sighted. The loan was accompanied by very strict I.M.F. regulations that will take control of the Romanian economy, an agreement similar to one that in 1996 ended in Romanian economic collapse. No Romanian wants to repeat that experience, but the image of 20 billion euro entering the Romanian economy put fears to rest. Now, two months after the I.M.F. loan injected the first 5 billion euro into the economy, the results are tragic. Two and a half billion has been wasted in keeping the national currency from losing value, and the other 2.5 billion was squandered on economic deficit balance. If the Romanian economy is wasting 5 billion euro in two months, this is an alarming signal, as it means the entire loan will not last through the end of the year. Many journalists speculate that the rush in accepting the I.M.F. conditions can be connected to corruption charges against a member of the Boc cabinet, considered the most corrupt in recent Romanian history. National bankruptcy: a working hypothesis This grim picture is getting even darker. At the same time that Romania took a national loan of 20 billion euro, non-state firms took international private loans of more than 20 billion. So in two months, 40 billion has been burned through, partially in keeping appearances for an election year. The state effort in pulling out of the crisis the real estate sector (by First House Program) and car sectors (Change Car Program) failed tragically, offering no tangible results for the Romanian economy. In the six years prior to this meltdown, the Romanian budget survived on foreign investments attracted by the favorable Romanian economic climate. In 2008, more than 12 billion euro were invested in the Romanian economy, sustaining the budget. This year only 1 billion euro were invested, which is completely insufficient in balancing the budget. The budget is now confronted with increased spending, a sharp decrease in tax collection, a national debt of 60 billion euro that is on the rise, and a private debt of more than 40 billion euro. As these numbers are impossible to sustain, the next year will see a new rush for credits with 10 percent interest. Romania is entering the world crisis with a feeble financial system, a national debt that could reach 100 billion by year's end, and a condensing internal market. If this financial policy of the present government continues, national bankruptcy is not a hypothesis but certitude. Anton Caragea is professor of International Relations and Political Science, and director of the Institute for Research on International Relations and Political Science in Romania. |
| Romanian President’s Election Win Contested by Rival Dec. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Romanian President Traian Basescu won re-election by less than a percentage point, prompting his rival to contest the vote and deepening a political crisis as the country seeks to repair ties with international lenders. Basescu won 50.3 percent in the run-off, compared with 49.7 percent for Social Democratic Party leader Mircea Geoana, the Central Electoral Bureau said on its Web site today, based on 100 percent of votes. The difference between the two men was 70, 000 votes, prompting Geoana’s party to challenge the outcome. The close result may hinder Basescu’s third attempt to push a third candidate for premier through Parliament after Emil Boc’s 10-month-old Cabinet collapsed in October, and may prompt him to call early general elections. Until then, the European Union’s second-poorest nation has little hope of unfreezing a $30 billion loan by the International Monetary Fund, cutting spending and reviving an economy deep in recession. “We will not have a government as soon as we hoped,” Cristian Parvulescu, a political analyst at the Bucharest National School of Political Studies. “Everything in Romanian politics is up in the air.” Falling Markets The leu dropped as much as 0.9 percent to 4.2594 to the euro and was trading at 4.2342 against the common currency as of 5:50 p.m. in Bucharest. The currency fell to a seven-month low and bonds plunged after the Oct. 13 government collapse. The benchmark BET index fell 4.52 percent to close at 4642.67. Romanians went to the polls in the second round of presidential elections yesterday with Geoana ahead in the final opinion survey, 54 percent to 46 percent. Three of four exit polls after balloting ended at 9 p.m. Bucharest time showed him winning the contest. “Most investors were anticipating a Geoana win and expecting that, because of his majority in Parliament, he would form a government,” said Vlad Muscalu, an economist at ING Bank Romania SA. “A win for Basescu could mean early elections and more volatility.” The decision by Geoana’s Social Democrats to contest the vote may leave the decision about the winner up to the courts. The party, which is claiming voter fraud, will decide on a post- election strategy by tomorrow, said Liviu Dragnea, the party’s vice president, at a news conference in Bucharest today. “These are not simple procedures,” he said. OSCE Observers Election observers of the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, or OSCE, said on its Web site today that the election “was held generally in line with OSCE commitments. The election administration continued to work in an overall professional manner.” Basescu has failed twice to push through a replacement for Boc, even though his Liberal Democratic Party is the largest in Parliament, with 167 of 471 seats. Should he ultimately resort to calling early parliamentary elections, the country would be left without an effective government until at least April. Basescu, a 58-year-old former tanker captain, won the first round of presidential elections two weeks ago with 31 percent, compared with 30 percent for Geoana. Crin Antonescu, leader of the National Liberal Party, took 20 percent and was eliminated from second-round voting. Antonescu later threw his support behind Geoana, linking the Social Democrats, backed by pensioners and the country’s 1.3 million state workers, with the party that campaigned on a platform of small government. Spending Cuts Basescu supports raising taxes and cutting spending while Geoana promised to scrap the 16 percent flat tax on income for a rate that rises with income, to narrow the state budget deficit. The changes could affect the country’s major earners, including exporter Dacia SA, owned by France’s Renault SA, and oil company Petrom SA, owned by Austria’s OMV AG. Geoana also promised to fulfill other demands from international lenders and to appoint some Cabinet ministers from the opposition parties that supported him in the second round. |
| ProUA СКАНДАЛИСТ-СОБИРАТЕЛЬ Со времен выборов 2004 года успех и популярность Трояна Басеску в значительной мере были обусловлены его ставкой на национал-популизм, замешанный на евроожиданиях румын. Именно при нынешнем румынском президенте произошла частичная реабилитация маршала Иона Антонеску и его внебрачного сына, профессора Георге Алексяну, который в 1941–1944 годах занимал должность губернатора «Транснистрии» с центром в Одессе (переименованной в «Антонеску»). Бухарест начал активно продвигать идею формирования румынского культурного пространства, выходящего за пределы самой Румынии (включая территорию Республики Молдова, Одесской и Черновицкой областей Украины). Как говорят некоторые румынские эксперты, «Басеску вернул Бухаресту геокультурную субъектность». Следует также отметить, что фирменным политическим стилем Басеску являются скандал и конфликт. Басеску сразу же оказался в эпицентре десятка коррупционных разбирательств, связанных как лично с ним (дело о продаже кораблей торгового флота в бытность его министром транспорта и обвинения в связях с Секуритатэ при Чаушеску), так и с его семьей (в коррупции обвинялись и дочери Басеску, и его родной брат Мирче). Нынешний президент Румынии стал также лидером по количеству парламентско-правительственных кризисов. Басеску оказался первым румынским президентом, временно отстраненным от должности парламентом, а потом, в результате референдума, вернувшим себе власть. При нем конфликт президента с парламентом вошел в политическую традицию Румынии. Чтобы окончательно разрешить эти противоречия, Басеску инициировал совмещение выборов главы государства с референдумом о преобразовании парламента Румынии из двухпалатного в однопалатный и сокращении числа депутатов с 471 до 300. 22 ноября большинство избирателей поддержали новации. Этим Басеску поставил точку в затянувшемся споре. Теперь дело за малым — выиграть второй тур, провести парламентские выборы (такая возможность предусмотрена конституцией) и сформировать лояльное к себе правительство. Однако в этой схеме есть одно «но». Результат первого тура президентской кампании не внушает Басеску уверенности в победе 6 декабря. Отрыв в один процент от лидера эсдеков Мирче Джоанэ свидетельствует о значительном падении поддержки гражданами Румынии ура-патриотической риторики действующего президента. Против Басеску и экономическая ситуация. В 2009 году румынский ВВП сократился на 8%. Сейчас в Румынии ВВП на душу населения составляет всего 31% от среднеевропейского показателя. МВФ приостановил выделение очередного кредитного транша в размере 1, 5 млрд. евро. Общая сумма займа 20 млрд., но при этом главное требование кредиторов — утверждение сокращений расходных статей бюджета на будущий год и принятие его до 10 декабря 2009 года. А без денег МВФ Бухаресту не удастся защитить лей от инфляции. Режим бюджетной экономии и неолиберальных реформ, которые ввел Басеску, вызывает в обществе сопротивление. Не решена проблема трудовых мигрантов и обеспечения их прав в ЕС. Все это может объективно подыграть Мирче Джоанэ. ОБРЕЧЕНЫ КОНКУРИРОВАТЬ Киев и Бухарест имеют достаточно много общих интересов, состоящих в «европеизации» Причерноморского региона. Однако, несмотря на очевидную выгоду от гипотетической кооперации, динамика диалога между странами не выдерживает никакой критики. По сути, на сегодняшний день можно констатировать устойчиво-инертный характер экономического сотрудничества, крайне низкое взаимопроникновение инвестиций, отсутствие крупных инвестиционных программ, наличие множества препятствий для ведения трансграничного бизнеса. Оба государства имеют амбиции в отношении лидерства в Причерноморье. И Киев, и Бухарест стремятся доминировать в транспортных коридорах на Дунае и выступать определенным донором региональной стабильности для стран региона с перспективой выхода на транзит Южного Кавказа и энергоресурсный Каспий. Наши интересы уже столкнулись в Черном море (и Украина проиграла) во время размежевания исключительных экономических зон. Такое состояние дел во многом стало следствием политики президента Басеску, играющего в «собирателя румынской идентичности». Но сейчас в Бухаресте начинают понимать, что такой путь ведет только к обострению отношений между странами. В последнее время наметилась тенденция к формированию позитивного образа Румынии в Украине при использовании экспертного сообщества двух стран. Тот же Троян Басеску отказался от применения в качестве электоральной «фишки» популярных антиукраинских лозунгов. Румынская сторона даже осторожно заявила о необходимости «перезапустить» диалог с Украиной после формирования новой власти в Бухаресте и Киеве. Однако это «миротворчество» румынской дипломатии второго плана больше напоминает PR-кампанию для Брюсселя, который обеспокоен кризисом отношений между Украиной и Румынией. В случае победы Басеску украинская линия румынского руководства останется почти неизменной. Бухарест продолжит курс на вытеснение Украины из транспортных коридоров Дуная. Маловероятно, что изменится политика румынских властей в отношении украинской общины, а давление на официальный Киев в вопросе культурных преференций для румын в Украине точно не снизится. В то же время приход к власти Мирче Джоанэ не даст качественной коррекции курса Бухареста в отношении Киева. Лидер социал-демократов во время его работы в МИДе Румынии (а это почти 10 лет) закладывал основы современной внешней политики Бухареста. Кроме того, Джоанэ — сторонник ситуативных альянсов с Россией. Накануне выборов в румынских СМИ прошла информация о том, что в апреле главный румынский оппозиционер посетил с частным визитом Москву, где провел тайную встречу с советниками Дмитрия Медведева. В местной прессе неоднократно упоминалось также о связях руководства социал-демократов и лично Джоанэ с российским бизнесменом Борисом Головиным, имеющим интересы в энергетической отрасли Румынии. Иными словами, смена власти в Бухаресте не означает изменения украинской политики Румынии. Речь может идти только о формальных признаках. Нас не станут игнорировать и будут иногда, для приличия, по мелочам договариваться. Главное, чтобы у ЕС не возникало лишних вопросов. Но суть румынской дипломатии от этого не изменится. Мы просто обречены на продолжение конкуренции в ближайшие пять лет. |
| Мисля, че и тази тема е отново актуална. От последните ми постове досега нещата много напреднаха, Румъния е в банкрут и се приближава до повторение на декември 1989 г. А ние? - ние, чакай... |
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Редактирано: 1 път. Последна промяна от: sybil |